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KMID : 0926620200250020069
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Korean Journal of Hospital Management
2020 Volume.25 No. 2 p.69 ~ p.75
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Predictive analysis of the Number of Cataract Surgeries
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Jeong Ji-Yun
Jeong Jae-Yeon
Lee Hae-Jong
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Abstract
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Purposes: This study aims to investigate the number of cataract surgeries and predict future trends using 13-year data.
Methodology: Trends investigation and comparison of prediction methods was conducted to determine better prediction model using Major Surgery Statistics from Korean Statistical Information Service in 2006-2018. ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) was selected and prediction was conducted using R program.
Findings: As a results, the number of surgeries will continue to increase. The trends was predicted to increase during January-April, and it declined over time and was the lowest in August.
Pratical Implications: Therefore, it is necessary that management will be needed by continuously investigating and predicting the demand and trend for surgery to prepare an alternative to the increase.
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KEYWORD
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Prediction, Cataract, Holt-winters exponential smoothing, ARIMA
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